Moving beyond Kavanaugh

No amount of rationalization about the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court is likely to change people’s opinions. In modern times, we seem to be more divided than ever as a country. But for people who opposed the justice’s appointment and supported the Democrats’ attempt to defeat it, I think it’s important to take away the right lessons from this contentious process. I fear many are not, which is not good for the party or the United States.

Some of the wrong lessons to take from this are that all the people who backed Kavanaugh’s confirmation are anti-women, unserious about sexual assault or unsupportive of the #MeToo movement. Supporting the unprecedented and scorched earth tactics that were employed in an attempt to deny his confirmation have arguably damaged the causes and policies sought by Kavanaugh’s opponents and the Democratic Party.

Referring to the threadbare and later thoroughly discredited accusations of Deborah Ramirez, Alexandra Desanctis wrote the following in a piece entitled “The Kavanaugh Circus Could Destroy the Me Too Movement”:

When people become numb to outrageous claims launched without verification and wielded by those with no interest in the truth, they will close their eyes to real instances of abuse… How can the average person be expected to care about seeking justice when so many in the public square seem to care more about advancing an agenda than about discerning who has actually been mistreated or abused?

This, of course, came before the even more ludicrous charges of gang-rape by Julie Swetnick.

While Christine Blasey Ford’s accusations were prima facie more credible, after her and Kavanaugh’s testimony and the FBI investigation that followed, the moderate Republican Senator Susan Collins assessed in a thoughtful and reasoned speech that they did not meet the “more likely than not” standard.

This was by no means a partisan judgment. Following Ford and Kavanaugh’s hearing, a YouGov survey found 33% of independent voters believed Ford, while 33% of them believed Kavanaugh, with others unsure about whom to believe. In other words, the vast majority of independent voters either didn’t believe Ford’s accusations or weren’t able to reach a conclusion. Throughout the course of United States history, in these situations, the presumption of innocence has been applied.

Democrats who are hoping that the FBI finds evidence against Trump in Robert Mueller’s Russia probe called the agency’s credibility into question by supporting these accusations. As Nick Gillespie noted on Twitter:

If you believe the accusations against Kavanaugh, you really got to acknowledge the FBI, which background-checked him half a dozen times, is the worst investigative outfit ever.

— Nick Gillespie (@nickgillespie) September 27, 2018

Even when the seventh inquiry by the FBI was complete and no new evidence was found, some Democrats insisted the investigation was insufficient, further undermining the agency. If Democrats want to impeach President Trump in the event Mueller brings charges against him, they need public opinion behind them. With the FBI already reeling from charges of partisanship in their Russia investigation, Democrats have further diminished the odds of impeachment.

Impeaching Trump or stopping his agenda in congress also requires winning over moderate Republicans. In addition to Susan Collins, the usually affable Senator Lindsay Graham was famously incensed by the Democrats’ unprecedented tactics during the process and the resulting treatment of both Judge Kavanaugh and Ms. Ford, who had initially wanted to remain anonymous but whose name was leaked. In his comments to the Democrats at the hearing, Graham expressed regret at his anger, noting that many of the Democrats on the committee had been his friends in the Senate. Indeed, he has voted with them numerous times over the years and in the past has been loathed by many more conservative Republicans for his positions on issues.

Countless media allies and columnists who have had barely a word of praise to offer Trump turned on Democrats as a result of their behavior during the confirmation process. It inspired Pulitzer Prize winner and notable Trump critic Bret Stephens to write a piece in the New York Times titled “For Once, I’m Grateful for Trump”. Those that didn’t turn on Democrats badly harmed their reputations as a result of their uncritical and shoddy reporting on Ramirez and Swetnick, especially NBC and The New Yorker.

It wasn’t just Republicans and some usually anti-Trump columnists that didn’t like the Democrats’ unprecedented tactics during the Senate confirmation process. 58% of independent voters disapproved of the way the nomination was handled by Democrats, with only 30% approving, a 28% margin. With the hearings beginning on September 4, the nastier the process became, the higher Trump’s job approval rating went. Christine Blasey Ford’s accusation was leaked on September 14 and the trend from that day forward has been moving in only one direction.

Unprecedented tactics to achieve a political goal inevitably come back to disappoint or haunt their supporters. It’s worth recalling how both Neil Gorsuch and Kavanaugh were elected to the Supreme Court. Despite repeated warnings about the long-term consequences, Democrats opted to exercise the “nuclear option” on President Obama’s lower court picks. But just as Senator Mitch McConnell had cautioned, their plan backfired. With Trump in the White House—against Democrats’ expectations when they went nuclear—Republicans were able to confirm their justices with only a majority vote.

Not only did Gorsuch and now Kavanaugh end up on the court as a direct result of Democrats exercising the nuclear option, but arguably Trump was elected as a result of it as well. Recall that he campaigned with a list of people he would nominate to the Supreme Court if elected. This emboldened many conservative voters who had been lukewarm to him. Knowing whom he might appoint and understanding that Trump could get them on the bench with only a majority vote may have been what tipped the balance in several states.

One of the ironies of the confirmation is that a major concern of Kavanaugh’s opponents was that they feared he might not uphold precedents such as Roe v. Wade. But in so doing they supported Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee committing unprecedented acts to upend his nomination. Peggy Noonan described some of the process well:

But the Kavanaugh hearings had some new elements. There were no boundaries on inquiry, no bowing to the idea of a private self. Accusations were made about the wording of captions under yearbook photos. The Senate showed a decline in public standards of decorum. A significant number of senators no longer even pretend to have class or imitate fairness. The screaming from the first seconds of the first hearings, the coordinated interruptions, the insistent rudeness and accusatory tones—none of it looked like the workings of the ordered democracy that has been the envy of the world.

As Dan Henninger noted recently about these and other recent tactics of the Democrats:

A valid criticism of Donald Trump is that he hasn’t expanded his base into a broader coalition. But his luck in attracting self-destructive opponents is astonishing.

People whose votes matter knew all about Trump’s proclivities and voted for him anyway. They’ll almost certainly vote for him again, if they’re not presented with a better alternative offering sound policies. If Trump’s to be defeated, Democrats need to run a much better primary process that isn’t stacked in favor of one person (as former DNC Chair Donna Brazile revealed and as Bernie Sanders suspected all along in 2016) so that a quality candidate emerges at the end of it. They also need to offer policies that appeal to a large number of voters. I fear the Democratic Party is being pulled very far left and the middle of the country won’t support policies that the fringe wants, regardless of how off-putting Trump is. He was just as boorish in 2016 as he probably will be in 2020. If this is to end, as my liberal friends keep calling for, Democrats need to make sure they don’t screw it up again. Their performance at the Kavanaugh hearings does not bode well.