Headlines such as “Dallas-Fort Worth out of ICU beds for children as surge in COVID-19 cases continues” have left many with the impression that in addition to being more contagious, the Delta variant is hitting kids harder than previous versions of the virus. It’s especially puzzling to those of us who’ve followed the science closely.
First, even though it’s more contagious, children ages 2 – 11 in the UK during its recent Delta wave had the lowest estimated prevalence of all ages under 35. As Alasdair Munro noted, this is despite being totally unvaccinated, no masks anywhere and their being in full time school for 4 months.
Second, while kids are more likely to get the Delta variant of COVID-19, it’s generally accepted it’s no more deadly than previous versions and in most cases kids will be asymptomatic or have extremely mild symptoms. That hasn’t changed.
So, why are we seeing these headlines that suggest pediatric ICUs (PICUs) are full? Well, today’s Dallas Morning News (publisher of the misleading headline above) came out with a revealing story today. While it too led with a profoundly misleading headline, fourteen paragraphs in we learn:
Forty-two patients were in Children’s Dallas PICU on Friday afternoon, out of 44 staffed beds. Four were positive for COVID-19.
That’s right, fewer than 10% of its patients are there for COVID-related reasons. Moreover, nothing has changed with the typical profile of kids who are in the ICUs with COVID, i.e. they’re most likely to have underlying health conditions, obesity etc.
The reason our PICUs are full here and across the United States is we’re being hit by a surge in RSV cases. It’s impacting the very young especially hard, including large numbers of children four and under. Indeed, this is a problem not just in America, but even in New Zealand. While it’s had essentially no COVID cases all year, RSV has recently caused a crisis in its hospital system, with newborns and infants hit especially hard.
The lesson here, as always, is don’t believe the hype, especially if it runs counter to what you know and expect. First, dig deeper.
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Seattle exemplifies the fast-growing private-public school pandemic gap
[…] No, children with COVID-19 aren’t filling up Texas intensive care units […]